MENA Economic Narrative & Market Stress Observatory
Revision-aware official price evidence built to preserve source boundaries, structural breaks and comparability limits instead of forcing a single regional stress score.
Independent research infrastructure · MENA
Independent evidence infrastructure for MENA economic and policy research.
The Lab builds source-linked datasets, economic monitoring systems, replication records and decision-grade research. Every material output is designed to expose where a number came from, how it changed, what was done to it, what remains uncertain and what has or has not been independently checked.
Latest discovery · Measurement Anomaly 001 · Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s 2023 economy went from shrinking to growing without 2023 changing.
An earlier official vintage recorded 2023 real GDP growth at −0.8%. After GASTAT’s comprehensive national-accounts revision, the same year is recorded at +0.5%. The 1.3-point revision crosses zero, changing the qualitative description of the year from contraction to growth.
The economy changes. So does the machinery used to measure it. This is a statistical-vintage event, not a claim that underlying 2023 activity changed retroactively.
−0.8%Earlier official vintage
→
+0.5%Revised official vintage
+1.3 percentage points · contraction → growth · official sources · source-linked · founder produced · pending independent reproduction
Current research
The Lab’s original flagship research objects remain active. Their release state, evidence scale and provenance are preserved rather than displaced by newer work.
MENA Funding & Procurement Intelligence
Normalized official-source procurement evidence for disclosed awards, pipelines and buyer intelligence within a documented source perimeter.
MENA Firm AI Adoption & Labor Adjustment
A source-bound 50-firm research panel separating technology disclosure from documented operational adoption and retaining workforce-definition changes.
Measurement infrastructure
A new connected research stack sits alongside the Lab’s existing programmes. It keeps statistical time, revisions, calendar regimes and methodology changes inside the empirical object.
01 · Statistical memory
MENA Vintage Vault
Preserves first releases and later official vintages so old economic histories remain addressable after revisions.
Open Vintage Vault →02 · Statistical time
MENA-RTD
Reconstructs what official economic information was actually public at historical dates without leaking revised future data backward.
Open MENA-RTD →03 · Calendar regimes
MENA-CAL
Historically versioned Ramadan, Eid, Hajj, working-day and weekend-regime controls for forecasting and seasonal-adjustment audits.
Open MENA-CAL →04 · Method regimes
Methodology Shock Registry
Tracks rebasing, classifications, survey redesigns, administrative-data adoption and other changes capable of rewriting measured history.
Open registry →05 · Statistical identity
MENA-STAT-ID
A bilingual benchmark testing whether retrieval preserves population, period, method, vintage and source alongside the numeric value.
Open public alpha →Research position: measurement economics is one programme inside the Lab, not a replacement for the Lab. The broader institution still covers economic monitoring, firm dynamics, procurement, alternative evidence, reproducibility and public-data infrastructure. Read the research position →
Evidence archive · Jordan · Evidence Brief
Jordan's annual headline CPI accelerated through May, then eased slightly in June.
The official year-on-year headline rate rose from 1.06% in January to 2.83% in May 2026, before easing to 2.79% in June. The month-on-month rate cooled to 0.14% by June.
This is a descriptive source-linked result. It does not identify component contributions, household welfare effects or a causal mechanism.
Headline CPI · annual % change
Lab at a glance
Only counts supported by the current institutional graph are shown here.
Registered releases7Current release registry.
Publications13Current institutional graph.
Research programmes7Current institutional graph.
Country evidence rooms14Current institutional graph.
Featured publications & data
Research objects with a public evidence trail. Publication status, data status and validation status are not treated as interchangeable.
−0.8% →
+0.5%
+0.5%
Measurement Anomaly 001
Saudi Arabia’s 2023 GDP changed sign
A source-linked vintage pair showing how a comprehensive national-accounts revision changed the qualitative description of 2023.
Read note →Jordan CPI
H1 2026
H1 2026
Evidence Brief
Jordan CPI, January–June 2026
A six-month source-linked note showing acceleration in annual headline CPI through May followed by a slight easing in June.
Read brief →176 / 400
firm-years
firm-years
Dataset · active collection
MENA Firm AI Adoption & Labor Adjustment
A 50-firm panel retaining source hashes, reporting-perimeter warnings and distinct evidence for disclosure versus operational adoption.
Dataset record →30 official
release links
release links
Research infrastructure · release candidate
Economic Narrative & Market Stress Observatory
Official price evidence across the pilot perimeter with 48 release-candidate rows and 195 populated numeric observations.
Inspect object →Independent scrutiny
Internal QA, independent verification, independent reproduction and external use are tracked as different states. The public graph currently records no completed review or reproduction artifacts, so none are implied here.
Independent reproductions0Current public institutional graph.
Public review artifacts0Current public institutional graph.
Country evidence rooms14Public evidence perimeter.
Measurement Anomaly 001OpenIndependent reproduction pending.
Claims remain bounded by the evidence state attached to each object. Reviewers and reproducers are named only when the corresponding artifact and attribution are publishable.
People behind the evidence
Research is attributable where attribution is public.
Public profiles appear only where identity, role and attributable work are cleared. Aggregate institutional activity is not converted into invented biographies.
Research leadership
Layan Oraidi
Founder & Research Director
Research direction, economic evidence systems, data provenance, reproducibility, public-data infrastructure, labour and technology evidence, and economic measurement.
Public attribution rule. Contributor and reviewer profiles appear when identity, role and attributable work are cleared for public disclosure.
Commissioned research
The Lab accepts bounded assignments where fragmented sources, weak comparability, provenance, reproducibility, statistical revisions or evidence quality are central to the decision.
01
Evidence Sprints02
Dataset construction03
Indicator & provenance audits04
Replication & reproducibility05
Statistical revision audits06
Ongoing evidence desksFixed scopeSource-linked deliverablesExplicit claim boundariesReproducible analysis