MENA Open Data & Evidence Lab
Research Release 002 · 17 August 2026

Same inflation label. Different measurement system.

Release 002 compares CPI measurement architecture across five MENA statistical systems, reconstructs the information set available around a real monetary-policy decision, and publishes a transparency benchmark that treats missing verification as missing—not as failure.

5 statistical systems3 research objectsofficial-source audit
5×6

country × transparency dimensions audited across methodology, historical access, machine-readable data, release timing, multilingual publication and method-change visibility.

Object 01 · CPI measurement comparability

Jordan · Egypt · Morocco · Saudi Arabia · United Arab Emirates.

CountryReference / baseWeight architecturePerimeterWhat matters
Jordan2018=100HIES-derived; LaspeyresSampled outlets across all governoratesOlder and newer reference series coexist in historical tables; dissemination rule is documented.
EgyptFY 2018/19Weights from FY2017/18 HIECSUrban, rural and Total Republic publicationsInflation used for monetary-policy communication may refer specifically to urban headline inflation.
Morocco2017=1002014 household expenditure survey + censusUrban households; 18 citiesThe current CPI is explicitly urban and the 2017 redesign expanded the basket.
Saudi Arabia2023=1002023 HIES + national accounts; annual weight updates23 cities in 13 regionsChain-linking means the weight system is refreshed annually while the published reference remains 2023=100.
United Arab EmiratesNot verified in current auditNot verified in current auditNational and emirate productsMachine-readable UAE.Stat access is strong; CPI-specific methodological metadata needs a deeper audit.

A missing field is not coded as institutional absence. It means the field was not verified in the current audit perimeter.

Object 02 · What Was Knowable?

Jordan · 18 June 2026 monetary-policy decision.

Do not explain a June decision with July data.

The Central Bank of Jordan maintained its key interest rate at 5.75% on 18 June 2026. The reconstruction below freezes the information set at the decision date.

17 JUN 2026

May CPI available in Arabic

DoS reported 1.88% cumulative inflation for January–May 2026 and 2.83% year-on-year inflation for May.

18 JUN 2026

Policy decision

CBJ maintained the key rate at 5.75%. Its release cited reserves of USD 27.2bn at end-May, 9.5 months of import coverage, 1.88% five-month inflation, 13.3% remittance growth, 1.6% national-export growth and a 9.2% decline in tourism income.

AFTER 18 JUN 2026

Post-decision data excluded

June CPI and later macro releases do not belong in the reconstructed decision-time information set.

Object 03 · Statistical Transparency Benchmark v0.1

Pilot evidence audit, not a definitive institutional ranking.

Saudi Arabia
6/6

All six pilot dimensions verified: methodology, archive, machine-readable access, statistical calendar, multilingual publication and method-change visibility.

Morocco
6/6

All six pilot dimensions verified, including a formal publication calendar and explicit methodological redesign notices.

Jordan
4+2p

Four dimensions verified; machine-readable access and method-change visibility remain partial in the current audit.

UAE
3+2p

Historical access, machine-readable access and multilingual publication verified; methodology and method-change evidence partial; advance calendar unverified.

Egypt
2+3p

Methodology and historical archive verified; three dimensions partial and advance release timing unverified in the current audit.

Rule

No zero by silence.

Unverified means unverified. A missing API, calendar or methods page is not coded as absent until absence is itself established.

What Release 002 establishes

Comparability requires metadata

The same CPI label can conceal different reference years, weight systems, geographic populations and index architectures.

Historical analysis requires vintages

A policy evaluation is invalid if it silently imports information published after the decision date.

Transparency is measurable

Methodology, release timing, machine readability, archive quality and revision visibility can be audited as separate evidence dimensions.

Research standard

Release 002 records verified institutional evidence as verified, unresolved fields as partial or unverified, and never infers a negative from a failed search. Scores are pilot evidence-coverage summaries, not claims about institutional quality beyond the audited dimensions.

Suggested citation: MENA Open Data & Evidence Lab (2026). Research Release 002: CPI measurement, decision-time information sets and statistical transparency. Version 1.0, 17 August 2026.

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